Saints
Saints vs. Falcons: Week 12 Preview
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After a welcome week off in Week 11, the New Orleans Saints return to NFL action on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, renewing one of the league’s most heated and storied rivalries. Falcons’ week is always a significant part of the Saints’ season, and Sunday’s matchup is no different. This weekend’s game could go a long way to determining this year’s NFC South title.
This clash holds even more significance, as in the previous 108 meetings between the teams – dating back to November 1967 – the all-time record is tied at fifty-four wins each. Victory in Atlanta on Sunday would be extra sweet for Dennis Allen’s men, potentially stamping their authority as the big brother in this rivalry.
The Saints currently possess a one-game lead over Atlanta and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the top of the NFL’s weakest division. A win here would be critical for giving the team some breathing room after a stop-start season, which has been frequently frustrating for New Orleans.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Game Preview
As we discussed in our midseason review, the Saints’ offense has been disappointing at times, particularly with the personnel at their disposal. Alvin Kamara doesn’t look his best, and Jamaal Williams has struggled to get going this year in a Saints uniform. Michael Thomas will miss significant time again because of an injury, but on the flip side, Chris Olave has continued to be a bright spot at receiver, going for his second straight 1,000-yard season.
This week brought familiar news for Saints fans, as Michael Thomas was again placed on IR, ruling him out of this one and at least three more games after that. This adds another wrench in the Saints’ offensive scheming and gives Pete Carmichael one more headache in planning for Sunday’s game.
The Falcons pass defense has been good this year, ranking 9th in the NFL, just behind the Saints. Their secondary – led by Jessie Bates, A. J. Terrell, and Richie Grant – has done well at not giving up big plays all year. However, they have not flipped the field too often, with only the Tennessee Titans recording fewer interceptions than Atlanta in 2023. Having an extra week to rest up and prepare for the Falcons matchup should work in the Saints’ favor.
Last year’s game after the bye was also against Atlanta, resulting in a narrow 21-18 win in the Superdome. The matchup with Minnesota in Week 10 certainly gave Allen and Carmichael plenty to think about during the off-week, now approaching the business end of the season with everything to play for.
Crucially, Derek Carr left the game with a concussion, and whether he starts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium remains in the air. He’s been back at practice as a full participant since Wednesday so that he could be back on the field in time for the weekend.
Carr’s performance before the bye summed up how frustrating and pedestrian this Saints offense has been this year, as 18 pass attempts resulted in just 110 yards before he was taken out of the game. At the same time, his opposite number, Josh Dobbs, managed another impressive showing in fresh threads in Minnesota.
Interestingly, the introduction of Jameis Winston gave the Saints a short-term spark in the Vikings game. He threw two touchdown passes, including a phenomenal catch from Olave, and the first career reception for 6th-round draft pick A. T. Perry. However, Winston also threw interceptions, and the second one slammed the door shut on any hope of a comeback.
On the offensive side of the ball, Atlanta poses a unique challenge for defensive coordinators. The Falcons’ rushing attack is amongst the best in the league, averaging over 130 yards a game on the ground. This unit is led by exciting rookie Bijan Robinson, whose 820 yards from scrimmage led the team and demonstrates why the Falcons’ front office elected to use the 8th overall pick on him in April.
Beyond Robinson, Tyler Allgeier is also a threat, and the two of them are a big part of why the Falcons rush on almost 47% of their plays, good for 6th in the NFL. In addition, Desmond Ridder has chipped in with 150 yards on the ground in his first full year as the starting quarterback in the Peach State.
Ridder’s ability as a passer has come under scrutiny this year, and he was benched for Taylor Heinecke in Week 9 after several poor performances. However, Heinecke didn’t fare any better, and Ridder was renamed the starter this week. He ranks as one of the league’s worst starters this year, with a Total QBR of just 39.3, and a lot to prove in his return to the lineup.
Another strange aspect of this Atlanta offense is their reliance on tight ends. Atlanta has two TEs with over 400 receiving yards this year, Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts, while most of the NFL doesn’t have any.
This might be due to Ridder’s preference for shorter passes, or it might be due to the lack of trust placed in his deep throws by the Falcons coaching staff. Whichever it is, expect the Saints to prepare for a run-heavy offense on Sunday, which is the Falcons’ most likely path to victory.
Facing the Saints, the run game might be their best shot. While the New Orleans defense does rank amongst the league’s best yet again, they have struggled somewhat against the run and rank in the bottom half for rushing yards allowed.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Game Prediction
This is the biggest game of 2023 so far for the Saints as they look to land a statement win over the division’s most threatening rivals.
As we’ve mentioned, Ridder is a quarterback with limitations in the passing game, and the Saints’ defense can make it a tough day for him in the air, ranking joint 2nd in the league in team interceptions.
The biggest threat that the Falcons offer is on the ground, and I can see them having some success there, but I’m backing this well-rested Saints side to get a crucial win. Demario Davis should be healthy in this one, and he’ll be vital to a rush defense that should be resilient throughout. Limiting the run forces action from Desmond Ridder in less-than-ideal down and distance situations is the key for the Saints to pick up the win.
Stunting Ridder’s ability to escape the pocket and run will be on the agenda. He must be accounted for when things break down as a threat to run, which will take discipline on the defensive side of the ball. Expect a good contest, but one where the Saints move to 6-5 as they look to claim the division title sooner rather than later. Even with Michael Thomas out, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed present enough firepower for Derek Carr or Jameis Winston to exploit gaps in the Falcons’ defense.
Final Score: Saints 34, Falcons 24
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