It’s almost over; only three games remain on the Memphis Tigers’ basketball team’s 2023-2024 regular season schedule. By this time, we all thought the Tigers would be in a better situation than previous years regarding qualifying for an NCAA tournament berth. However, it’s the same old story: their quest for a third-straight tournament berth under Penny Hardaway hangs in the balance. They recently avenged last season’s first-round tournament exit to Florida Atlantic in front of a packed FedEx Forum crowd donned in blue and white colors. The win over the Owls was their second-straight win in four days.
The victory was deemed a Quad 1 triumph, but most college basketball experts still view the Tigers as outside looking in regarding the NCAA tournament. The only realistic path for Memphis to deem themselves eligible for a tournament berth is to run the table and leave Fort Worth, Texas, with the AAC title. However, if the winning streak continues through the remainder of the season, including a second victory over Florida Atlantic, things could be very intriguing for the Tigers.
Even though the Owls are projected to be locked in as a team that qualifies for a tournament berth, many analysts believe their automatic bid could be in jeopardy if they incur another loss to Memphis. But for Memphis to even have those aspirations, they must continue taking of the business in front of them. The Tigers head on the road to face East Carolina, a team with similar ups and downs throughout the season.
The Pirates have won three out of their last four games and currently sit two spots below Memphis in the AAC standings. Unlike the Tigers, the Pirates do not have the possibility of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Their 14-13 overall record, 7-7 in the AAC, is not strong enough to be considered as a qualifier. Winning the conference title seems to be their realistic path. However, a win over Memphis would be a significant confidence booster heading into the AAC tournament.
The Pirates are 11-7 at home and have garnered a reputation for being one of the league’s top defensive programs. Since the AAC competition tipped off, the Pirates have not allowed an opponent to reach 75 points in seven home games. Can they achieve the same level of efficiency against Memphis? The Tigers have a dynamic scorer in David Jones, who can present significant challenges to what the Pirates do from a defensive standpoint. Jones leads the conference in scoring 21.7 points per game and is fifth in rebounding with 7.5. Their roster does not contain a bonafide big man who can be effective in multiple ways, similar to Florida Atlantic’s Vladislav Goldin. Still, instead, the Pirates utilize a by-committee approach.
Forwards Brandon Johnson and Ezra Ausar average 8.5 and 4.7 rebounds per game, respectively. Due to not having center Malcolm Dandridge available because of an eligibility issue, players such as Nae’Qwan Tomlin and Nicholas Jourdain must maintain the Tigers’ presence below. How they perform in Thursday’s matchup will pay enormous dividends for a Memphis victory.
As for positioning themselves for a shorter path to repeating as AAC champions, the Tigers must finish the season no lower than fourth place in the conference. Currently, UAB and SMU hold the fourth and fifth seeds, respectively.
Score Prediction
The Tigers end their road-losing skid on Thursday night against East Carolina and extend their latest winning streak to three.
Memphis 77, East Carolina 70
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