The NFC South rivalry between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints is one rich with history. These two sides first met in 1967 and have since gone to battle a total of 108 times going into Sunday November 26th’s game.
This weekend’s matchup will be especially important, with the rivalry currently tied at 54-54. The Saints have been the better team in recent years, winning eight of the last ten meetings, including the latest game which resulted in a tightly contested 21-18 win at the Superdome in December 2022.
New Orleans currently lead the NFC South with a 5-5 record, but Atlanta is only one game behind at 4-6. A loss would bring the two sides level and give the Falcons the upper hand in the head-to-head.
After Sunday afternoons matchup, these two teams won’t meet again until the final day of the regular season. Neither will want to go into that game as the lower seed, so clambering for a result this weekend becomes crucial for both franchises.
Today we’re looking at five storylines going into that game on Sunday. We’ll look at the Falcons roster this year and a recent change at quarterback, as well as the current state of the New Orleans Saints and what their hopes for this season might be.
Same old Saints or something new?
The last two seasons have been tough for New Orleans, who still seem to be adjusting to life without their Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees. In his last year with the franchise, Brees led the team to a 12-4 record and first place in the NFC South for the fourth straight year.
Without him, the Saints are yet to win the division. The year after Brees departed the Saints went 5-5 through the first 10 weeks, but had started that year 5-2.
They then spent the second half of that season failing to string two wins together, eventually landing on a 9-8 record, middle of the road in the NFC and without a spot in the playoffs.
In 2022 the franchise was constantly trying to get away from a bad record. They started the year slow, losing three of their first four games, and then spent the rest of the year trying to sprint uphill. They were 1-3, 2-5, 3-7, and ended up 7-10 without ever really looking like making the postseason.
The team under Dennis Allen has been mediocre, a perfect description of a team that’s never been horrible, but also never looked capable of making a splash in a playoff game or threatening any of the league’s genuine contenders.
So how does the rest of this year go? Do the Saints look any more dangerous with Derek Carr at quarterback? Right now, I’d argue not. As we’ve seen multiple times now in the post-Brees era, this team can go out and blow a team away one week, and then suffer a dismal loss the next.
The second half of the 2023 season will determine Dennis Allen’s fate. If the Saints trail off and finish 8-9 and miss the postseason again, you must wonder how the organization will feel about the lack of progression.
Desmond Ridder’s second chance to shine
Desmond Ridder was handed the keys to the Atlanta Falcons franchise this season, having taken over late in the year last year from an underwhelming Marcus Mariota.
His performance this season was lackluster to say the least, and while he might be capable of making some tidy throws, it wasn’t enough to retain his position.
Through the first eight games of the year, Ridder threw six touchdowns and six picks. He reached the highs of a standout performance against the Houston Texans, throwing for 329 passing yards and a touchdown, but the lows were far more regular and eventually cost him his job.
In Week 8, Ridder managed to throw for 71 yards against a fairly pedestrian Tennessee Titans defense before a concussion took him out of the game. Taylor Heinicke replaced him, and after playing relatively well and throwing a touchdown, the Falcons stuck with him for the next two games.
Heinicke has played okay, but it wasn’t exactly anything to get excited about for Atlanta, and now ahead of the matchup with New Orleans they’re going back to Desmond Ridder.
The remaining weeks of the season will be crucial to Ridder’s future. You would have to imagine that if the second half of the year looks the same as the first, the Falcons will be in the market for a quarterback either via free agency or the NFL draft. They have a great young core of talent and won’t want it to go to waste with hindering quarterback play.
Is Desmond Ridder’s second shot at the starting job going to look any better? We’ll find out on Sunday.
The Falcons are in a must win scenario
As earlier mentioned, the playoff implications of this game are huge. If the Saints win, they will go two games clear at the top of the division and make it difficult for Atlanta to catch up.
A win against the Saints would bring the franchise some much needed momentum, especially going into a favorable schedule down the stretch. After Sunday’s game, Atlanta will play the New York Jets, and then back to back games against division rivals in Carolina and Tampa Bay. Realistically, they could go 4-0 in those games if they hit some form, and that would certainly apply pressure to New Orleans.
Losing Sunday’s game puts them on the backfoot, and they certainly wouldn’t want to go into that last day of the regular season on January 7th either needing a win to survive or already being out of contention for the NFC South title.
The impact reaches further too. A loss would mean likely competing for a wildcard spot with other teams in the NFC. Atlanta are going to struggle to keep up with the likes of Seattle and Minnesota, and absolutely won’t catch the Dallas Cowboys.
With Dallas at 8-3 and looking like one of the best teams in football despite being second place to the Philadelphia Eagles in their own division, there are only realistically two wildcard spots left to go around. That puts whoever finishes second in the NFC South in a compromised position, not to mention the looming presence of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Falcons vaunted rushing attack versus the Saints defense
While Atlanta’s pass game has struggled at times, they’ve been dangerous on the ground all season.
Head coach Arthur Smith has been a major supporter of the run game throughout his career, finding success in Tennessee with the emergence of Derrick Henry.
In Atlanta, he had similar success last year, with 5th round rookie Tyler Allgeier clearing 1,000 yards on the ground and 4.9 yards per carry.
This season, Atlanta ranks seventh in the NFL with 130 rushing yards per game. The addition of first rounder talent Bijan Robinson has been impressive, and he is still far from maxing out his potential as a dynamic back for years to come.
Only four teams run the ball more than the Falcons on average, meaning this Saints defense is going to have its work cut out to take that away.
The Saints are allowing 113 rushing yards per game, perhaps struggling to contain the run a little more this year than they have in years past. They’re still playing good defense, and the addition of Bryan Bresee on the interior of the defensive line will only help to sure up those inside run gaps further over time.
Pete Werner leads the league in tackles, but has been a little underwhelming so far this season. Many expected big things after a great performance in 2022, but his consistency in tackling and missed assignments has been a problem and something the fans have certainly noticed.
Demario Davis is still around for now, and still commanding the defense from middle linebacker, but the Saints won’t have his veteran experience forever. He’s only under contract for one more season, and at 34 years old who knows how much more he has to give.
The Saints secondary without Marshon Lattimore
Saints All Pro corner Marshon Lattimore was sidelined with a high ankle sprain in Week 11, and could end up being placed on injured reserve in the coming days. Regardless of the official status, we know he’s going to be out at least a few weeks, which puts additional strain on the secondary without him.
Paulson Adebo will be the man who needs to step up into a lead role, and in fairness to him he’s played extremely well in the last few weeks.
Adebo has graded a 90+ in coverage in each of his last three games, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s had four interceptions and seven pass break ups so far this year, and one more pass break up would signal career highs in both categories for the third year corner.
The Saints have got some good reps out of journeyman corner Isaac Yiadom, a third round selection by the Denver Broncos back in 2018. He’s had five pass break ups in nine games this year, playing his sixth season in the NFL.
The safeties have plenty of experience, but these corners will need to step up in their roles with Lattimore out. For Adebo that means tracking WR1s, this weekend being Drake London, and for the likes of Alontae Taylor and Yiadom, playing more snaps and refusing to give up a high volume of yards.
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