After 13 weeks of NFL action, a playoff picture is starting to emerge. We now have a pretty clear idea of which teams will be gracing our screens in January, and we thought it was about time we started to map out our playoff projections. In this article, we will break down our projected playoff seeding and how it might play out. Based on each team’s current standings and form, this is what we expect to be treated to when the playoffs arrive.
AFC Projected Playoff Matchups
Number One Seed: Miami Dolphins (1st Round Bye)
Under the masterful stewardship of Mike McDaniel, the Miami Dolphins’ incredible offense has led them to a first-round bye. McDaniel took the job in Miami because he believed that Tua Tagovailoa could be great, and he has given him the best opportunity to be just that. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are a dream duo to aim at in the passing game, combining beautifully with McDaniel’s artistic run game. In the playoffs, Miami will have to prove they can topple the big teams, but they are undoubtedly a foe to be feared.
Playoff Matchups AFC
Texans (7th seed) vs. Ravens (2nd seed)
Who saw this one coming? Houston has turned it around in fine fashion, going from a team worthy of the second-overall pick to one that is in the playoff picture just one year later. CJ Stroud has enjoyed a rookie season for the ages, but will he be able to handle the elite Baltimore defense? They have held offenses to just 15 points per game this year, so it will be a stiff test for the rookie. Lamar Jackson and company won’t make Houston’s life easy either. Jackson has been fantastic in the first season after his major new contract. The Ravens are one of the best offenses in the league as a rushing and passing attack. Good luck, Houston!
Jaguars (6th seed) vs. Chiefs (3rd seed)
The Jaguars’ last playoff game was a Divisional round loss to the Chiefs. They will be looking for revenge here, against a Kansas City team that is still searching for answers on offense but boasting the best defense of Patrick Mahomes’s career. Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Calvin Ridley must be at their best to outpace Kansas in this one. Despite the issues in Kansas City, they still have the best quarterback in the NFL and his future Hall-of-Fame partner in crime, Travis Kelce. It would be foolish ever to count them out.
Steelers (5th seed) vs. Colts (4th seed)
The Colts edge out a dramatic divisional win in our projections, meaning three AFC South teams go through to the playoffs. By winning the division, the Colts are rewarded with a matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who will likely have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. The Steelers have passed 400 yards only once in the last 60 games, but their defense can certainly win them a game. TJ Watt is hunting for a Defensive Player of the Year award, and the Gardner Minshew-led Colts won’t have it easy.
NFC Projected Playoff Matchups
Number One Seed: San Francisco 49ers (1st Round Bye)
Is this the year that it has all come together for San Francisco? Brock Purdy has shone in his sophomore season, helped out by a supporting cast that is littered with stars. They have already dispatched Dallas and Philadelphia during the regular season, so they will feel pretty confident as they stick their feet up during the bye.
Playoff Matchups NFC
Rams (7th seed) vs. Cowboys (2nd seed)
The Rams sneak into the final playoff spot but have a daunting clash with the Dallas Cowboys as a result. Dak Prescott is having an MVP-worthy season this year, dissecting opponents on a weekly basis. The pass-heavy approach has been wonderful to watch and turned CeeDee Lamb into a true superstar receiver. The Rams have some pass catchers of their own, with 5th-round rookie Puka Nacua joining Cooper Kupp to give defenses a headache. Can Matthew Stafford turn back the clocks and deliver some more postseason joy?
Packers (6th seed) vs. Lions (3rd seed)
Love is in the air in Green Bay. It looks as if they really have landed another top quarterback. Jordan Love hit a mid-season slump but has come out on the other side in fine fashion. He is operating a very young offense, but the results have been excellent. The future certainly is bright in Green Bay. Our projections land them a postseason date with bitter rivals, the Detroit Lions. Jared Goff is leading an elite offense, but that defense is struggling and has already been picked apart by Jordan Love. Can he do it again?
Eagles (5th seed) vs. Falcons (4th seed)
The Eagles get pipped by the Cowboys in the NFC East, but they end up with a pretty good wildcard round matchup all the same. The Falcons are limping their way to a playoff appearance and are surely set up for a one-and-done appearance. Bijan Robinson will need to be a star for Atlanta to have a chance in this one, but the matchup against the Eagles’ run defense is daunting. Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, and DeVonta Smith should have no problem racking up points against the Falcons secondary. Atlanta has it all to do in this game.
AFC Championship Game
Ravens vs. Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins capitalize on the first-round bye week to set up a clash with the Baltimore Ravens in our projected AFC Championship clash. Miami has averaged an impressive 32 points per game this year, thanks to their masterful combination of speed and offensive play design. Mike McDaniels has built an incredible offensive unit that is perfectly suited to his play-calling. His use of pre-snap motions has been copied all over the league as the 2023 season has progressed, and it should be good enough to get them to the big AFC showdown. Jalen Ramsey’s return from injury has bolstered the secondary and taken the defense to a new level as well. They are deserving of getting the opportunity to fight for the AFC’s crown.
Their opponents, the Baltimore Ravens, are much more balanced. If Lamar Jackson doesn’t get you, the defense will. There are no easy matchups for the opposition of the Baltimore Ravens. They are a top-10 defense against the pass and the run, so it will be fascinating to see how Mike McDaniel’s talented Miami offense tries to move the ball. When Lamar Jackson has the ball in hand, the rookie Zay Flowers will have to be an X factor, with reliable tight end Mark Andrews likely lost for the year. Thankfully, Baltimore can counteract his injury with their league-leading run game. They have rushed for more yards per game than any other team. Miami’s defense is a weakness compared to their offense, and allowing Baltimore to establish the run could be fatal.
NFC Championship Game
Cowboys vs. 49ers
Our projected NFC showdown also features the number one seed, with the San Francisco 49ers taking on the Dallas Cowboys. A mid-season wobble, in the form of a three-game losing streak, worried fans. Now, back in full health, the 49ers are the popular Super Bowl favorite. They are almost impossible to stop when healthy, with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey simply being too much to cover. A big total from San Francisco is inevitable, so Dallas’s offense must get the job done. The only issue is San Francisco’s defense is elite as well. They are giving up the second-fewest points per game, at an average of just 15.8
Nevertheless, we think they can do it. After week 13 of the NFL season, Dak Prescott is neck and neck with Brock Purdy in the MVP betting odds. The Cowboys’ ability to beat good teams is the only thing holding him back, but they finally get over the hump in our projection. The secondary is the best place to attack San Francisco, and that plays into Dallas’ strengths nicely. A big game from Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson here sent the Cowboys to their first Super Bowl since their 1995 season.
Super Bowl LVlll Matchup
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Our projected Super Bowl will see the Dallas Cowboys take on the Baltimore Ravens. It is very difficult to find weaknesses in either of these two teams, with both sides landing in PFF’s top 6 offenses and defenses. Former MVP Lamar Jackson has already come good on his mega contract, now facing off against potential MVP of 2023, Dak Prescott.
The Ravens’ journey out of the AFC North became easier after Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow sustained a season-ending wrist injury, but they have earned their spot in the showcase game. Jackson is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league, adding 574 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns to his 2,618 passing yards. His rushing ability has helped his running back room, led by Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell, dominate. A running attack is made even more dangerous when paired up with a lethal defense, which is exactly what the Ravens have. Few can claw their way back once teams fall behind against Baltimore.
Dallas is one team that will fancy their chances, though. Prescott is playing the best ball of his life, and Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle offer a very handy one-two punch in the backfield. You need a balanced offense to stand a chance against the Ravens, and the Cowboys’ elite offensive line will be crucial in helping them establish a run and create that balance. The Cowboys’ defense won’t be out of their depth when Baltimore has the ball either. Dallas is a top 5 defense, and DaRon Bland’s presence means Lamar Jackson must be very careful with the ball. The cornerback has already broken the record for pick-6s in a season, and you know he wants one in the Super Bowl. Both clubs have a few tough matchups to close out the season, but we confidentially believe these two will meet in Las Vegas.
